Predicting Alzheimer's risk: why and how?

Because the pathologic processes that underlie Alzheimer's disease (AD) appear to start 10 to 20 years before symptoms develop, there is currently intense interest in developing techniques to accurately predict which individuals are most likely to become symptomatic. Several AD risk prediction strategies - including identification of biomarkers and neuroimaging techniques and development of risk indices that combine traditional and non-traditional risk factors - are being explored. Most AD risk prediction strategies developed to date have had moderate prognostic accuracy but are limited by two key issues. First, they do not explicitly model mortality along with AD risk and, therefore, do not differentiate individuals who are likely to develop symptomatic AD prior to death from those who are likely to die of other causes. This is critically important so that any preventive treatments can be targeted to maximize the potential benefit and minimize the potential harm. Second, AD risk prediction strategies developed to date have not explored the full range of predictive variables (biomarkers, imaging, and traditional and non-traditional risk factors) over the full preclinical period (10 to 20 years). Sophisticated modeling techniques such as hidden Markov models may enable the development of a more comprehensive AD risk prediction algorithm by combining data from multiple cohorts. As the field moves forward, it will be critically important to develop techniques that simultaneously model the risk of mortality as well as the risk of AD over the full preclinical spectrum and to consider the potential harm as well as the benefit of identifying and treating high-risk older patients

Provider Perspectives on the Influence of Family on Nursing Home Resident Transfers to the Emergency Department: Crises at the End of Life.

Background. Nursing home (NH) residents often experience burdensome and unnecessary care transitions, especially towards the end of life. This paper explores provider perspectives on the role that families play in the decision to transfer NH residents to the emergency department (ED). Methods. Multiple stakeholder focus groups (n = 35 participants) were conducted with NH nurses, NH physicians, nurse practitioners, physician assistants, NH administrators, ED nurses, ED physicians, and a hospitalist. Stakeholders described experiences and challenges with NH resident transfers to the ED. Focus group interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Transcripts and field notes were analyzed using a Grounded Theory approach. Findings. Providers perceive that families often play a significant role in ED transfer decisions as they frequently react to a resident change of condition as a crisis. This sense of crisis is driven by 4 main influences: insecurities with NH care; families being unprepared for end of life; absent/inadequate advance care planning; and lack of communication and agreement within families regarding goals of care. Conclusions. Suboptimal communication and lack of access to appropriate and timely palliative care support and expertise in the NH setting may contribute to frequent ED transfers

Emergency department visits and hospitalizations by tube-fed nursing home residents with varying degrees of cognitive impairment: a national study

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies indicate that the use of feeding tubes (FT) in persons with advanced cognitive impairment (CI) does not improve clinical outcomes or survival, and results in higher rates of hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visits. It is not clear, however, whether such risk varies by resident level of CI and whether these ED visits and hospitalizations are potentially preventable. The objective of this study was to determine the rates of ED visits, hospitalizations and potentially preventable ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) ED visits and ACS hospitalizations for long-stay NH residents with FTs at differing levels of CI. METHODS: We linked Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services inpatient & outpatient administrative claims and beneficiary eligibility data with Minimum Data Set (MDS) resident assessment data for nursing home residents with feeding tubes in a 5% random sample of Medicare beneficiaries residing in US nursing facilities in 2006 (n = 3479). Severity of CI was measured using the Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS) and categorized into 4 groups: None/Mild (CPS = 0-1, MMSE = 22-25), Moderate (CPS = 2-3, MMSE = 15-19), Severe (CPS = 4-5, MMSE = 5-7) and Very Severe (CPS = 6, MMSE = 0-4). ED visits, hospitalizations, ACS ED visits and ACS hospitalizations were ascertained from inpatient and outpatient administrative claims. We estimated the risk ratio of each outcome by CI level using over-dispersed Poisson models accounting for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Twenty-nine percent of our cohort was considered “comatose” and “without any discernible consciousness”, suggesting that over 20,000 NH residents in the US with feeding tubes are non-interactive. Approximately 25% of NH residents with FTs required an ED visit or hospitalization, with 44% of hospitalizations and 24% of ED visits being potentially preventable or for an ACS condition. Severity of CI had a significant effect on rates of ACS ED visits, but little effect on ACS hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: ED visits and hospitalizations are common in cognitively impaired tube-fed nursing home residents and a substantial proportion of ED visits and hospitalizations are potentially preventable due to ACS conditions

Development and Validation of eRADAR: A Tool Using EHR Data to Detect Unrecognized Dementia.

ObjectivesEarly recognition of dementia would allow patients and their families to receive care earlier in the disease process, potentially improving care management and patient outcomes, yet nearly half of patients with dementia are undiagnosed. Our aim was to develop and validate an electronic health record (EHR)-based tool to help detect patients with unrecognized dementia (EHR Risk of Alzheimer's and Dementia Assessment Rule [eRADAR]).DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingKaiser Permanente Washington (KPWA), an integrated healthcare delivery system.ParticipantsA total of 16 665 visits among 4330 participants in the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study, who undergo a comprehensive process to detect and diagnose dementia every 2 years and have linked KPWA EHR data, divided into development (70%) and validation (30%) samples.MeasurementsEHR predictors included demographics, medical diagnoses, vital signs, healthcare utilization, and medications within the previous 2 years. Unrecognized dementia was defined as detection in ACT before documentation in the KPWA EHR (ie, lack of dementia or memory loss diagnosis codes or dementia medication fills).ResultsOverall, 1015 ACT visits resulted in a diagnosis of incident dementia, of which 498 (49%) were unrecognized in the KPWA EHR. The final 31-predictor model included markers of dementia-related symptoms (eg, psychosis diagnoses, antidepressant fills), healthcare utilization pattern (eg, emergency department visits), and dementia risk factors (eg, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes). Discrimination was good in the development (C statistic = .78; 95% confidence interval [CI] = .76-.81) and validation (C statistic = .81; 95% CI = .78-.84) samples, and calibration was good based on plots of predicted vs observed risk. If patients with scores in the top 5% were flagged for additional evaluation, we estimate that 1 in 6 would have dementia.ConclusionThe eRADAR tool uses existing EHR data to detect patients with good accuracy who may have unrecognized dementia. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:103-111, 2019

Planting the Seed : Perceived Benefits of and Strategies for Discussing Long-Term Prognosis with Older Adults

OBJECTIVES: To characterize the goals and approaches of clinicians with experience discussing long-term prognostic information with older adults. DESIGN: We used a semistructured interview guide containing 2 domains of perceived benefits and strategies to explore why and how clinicians choose to discuss long-term prognosis, defined as life expectancy on the scale of years, with patients. SETTING: Clinicians from home-based primary care practices, community-based clinics, and academic medical centers across San Francisco. PARTICIPANTS: Fourteen physicians, including 11 geriatricians and 1 geriatric nurse practitioner, with a mean age of 40 and a mean 9 years in practice. MEASUREMENTS: Clinician responses were analyzed qualitatively using the constant comparisons approach. RESULTS: Perceived benefits of discussing long-term prognosis included establishing realistic expectations for patients, encouraging conversations about future planning, and promoting shared decision-making through understanding of patient goals of care. Communication strategies included adapting discussions to individual patient preferences and engaging in multiple conversations over time. Clinicians preferred to communicate prognosis in words and with a visual aid, although most did not know of a suitable visual aid. CONCLUSION: Engaging in customized longitudinal discussions of long-term prognosis aids clinicians in anchoring conversations about future planning and preparing patients for the end of life

Coming Home: Health Status and Homelessness Risk of Older Pre-release Prisoners

Older adults comprise an increasing proportion of the prison and homeless populations. While older age is associated with adverse post-release health events and incarceration is a risk factor for homelessness, the health status and homelessness risk of older pre-release prisoners are unknown. Moreover, most post-release services are geared towards veterans; it is unknown whether the needs of non-veterans differ from those of veterans. To assess health status and risk of homelessness of older pre-release prisoners, and to compare veterans with non-veterans. Cross-sectional study of 360 prisoners (≥55 years of age) within 2 years of release from prison using data from the 2004 Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities. Veteran status, health status (based on self-report), and risk of homelessness (homelessness before arrest). Mean age was 61 years; 93.8% were men and 56.5% were white. Nearly 40% were veterans, of whom 77.2% reported likely VA service eligibility. Veterans were more likely to be white and to have obtained a high school diploma or GED. Overall, 79.1% reported a medical condition and 13.6% reported a serious mental illness. There was little difference in health status between veterans and non-veterans. Although 1 in 12 prisoners reported a risk factor for homelessness, the risk factors did not differ according to veteran status. Older pre-release prisoners had a high burden of medical and mental illness and were at risk for post-release homelessness regardless of veteran status. Reentry programs linking pre-release older prisoners to medical and psychiatric services and to homelessness prevention programs are needed for both veterans and non-veterans

Gravitating σ\sigma Model Solitons

We study axially symmetric static solitons of O(3) nonlinear $\sigma$ model coupled to (2+1)-dimensional anti-de Sitter gravity. The obtained solutions are not self-dual under static metric. The usual regular topological lump solution cannot form a black hole even though the scale of symmetry breaking is increased. There exist nontopological solitons of half integral winding in a given model, and the corresponding spacetimes involve charged Ba$\tilde n$ados-Teitelboim-Zanelli black holes without non-Abelian scalar hair.Comment: 35 pages, RevTe

Comparison of 6 Mortality Risk Scores for Prediction of 1-Year Mortality Risk in Older Adults With Multimorbidity.

Importance The most appropriate therapy for older adults with multimorbidity may depend on life expectancy (ie, mortality risk), and several scores have been developed to predict 1-year mortality risk. However, often, these mortality risk scores have not been externally validated in large sample sizes, and a head-to-head comparison in a prospective contemporary cohort is lacking. Objective To prospectively compare the performance of 6 scores in predicting the 1-year mortality risk in hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. Design, Setting, and Participants This prognostic study analyzed data of participants in the OPERAM (Optimising Therapy to Prevent Avoidable Hospital Admissions in Multimorbid Older People) trial, which was conducted between December 1, 2016, and October 31, 2018, in surgical and nonsurgical departments of 4 university-based hospitals in Louvain, Belgium; Utrecht, the Netherlands; Cork, Republic of Ireland; and Bern, Switzerland. Eligible participants in the OPERAM trial had multimorbidity (≥3 coexisting chronic diseases), were aged 70 years or older, had polypharmacy (≥5 long-term medications), and were admitted to a participating ward. Data were analyzed from April 1 to September 30, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures The outcome of interest was any-cause death occurring in the first year of inclusion in the OPERAM trial. Overall performance, discrimination, and calibration of the following 6 scores were assessed: Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons, CARING (Cancer, Admissions ≥2, Residence in a nursing home, Intensive care unit admit with multiorgan failure, ≥2 Noncancer hospice guidelines) Criteria, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Gagné Index, Levine Index, and Walter Index. These scores were assessed using the following measures: Brier score (0 indicates perfect overall performance and 0.25 indicates a noninformative model); C-statistic and 95% CI; Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and calibration plots; and sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Results The 1879 patients in the study had a median (IQR) age of 79 (74-84) years and 835 were women (44.4%). The median (IQR) number of chronic diseases was 11 (8-16). Within 1 year, 375 participants (20.0%) died. Brier scores ranged from 0.16 (Gagné Index) to 0.24 (Burden of Illness Score for Elderly Persons). C-statistic values ranged from 0.62 (95% CI, 0.59-0.65) for Charlson Comorbidity Index to 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for the Walter Index. Calibration was good for the Gagné Index and moderate for other mortality risk scores. Conclusions and Relevance Results of this prognostic study suggest that all 6 of the 1-year mortality risk scores examined had moderate prognostic performance, discriminatory power, and calibration in a large cohort of hospitalized older adults with multimorbidity. Overall, none of these mortality risk scores outperformed the others, and thus none could be recommended for use in daily clinical practice

Serial interferon-gamma release assays during treatment of active tuberculosis in young adults

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The role of interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) in monitoring responses to anti-tuberculosis (TB) treatment is not clear. We evaluated the results of the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-tube (QFT-GIT) assay over time during the anti-TB treatment of adults with no underlying disease.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We enrolled soldiers who were newly diagnosed with active TB and admitted to the central referral military hospital in South Korea between May 1, 2008 and September 30, 2009. For each participant, we preformed QFT-GIT assay before treatment (baseline) and at 1, 3, and 6 months after initiating anti-TB medication.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 67 eligible patients, 59 (88.1%) completed the study protocol. All participants were males who were human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative and had no chronic diseases. Their median age was 21 years (range, 20-48). Initially, 57 (96.6%) patients had positive QFT-GIT results, and 53 (89.8%), 42 (71.2%), and 39 (66.1%) had positive QFT-GIT results at 1, 3, and 6 months, respectively. The IFN-γ level at baseline was 5.31 ± 5.34 IU/ml, and the levels at 1, 3, and 6 months were 3.95 ± 4.30, 1.82 ± 2.14, and 1.50 ± 2.12 IU/ml, respectively. All patients had clinical and radiologic improvements after treatment and were cured. A lower IFN-γ level, C-reactive protein ≥ 3 mg/dl, and the presence of fever (≥ 38.3°C) at diagnosis were associated with negative reversion of the QFT-GIT assay.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although the IFN-γ level measured by QFT-GIT assay decreased after successful anti-TB treatment in most participants, less than half of them exhibited QFT-GIT reversion. Thus, the reversion to negativity of the QFT-GIT assay may not be a good surrogate for treatment response in otherwise healthy young patients with TB.</p